Presidential elections typically come down to the 鈥榝undamentals,鈥 like economic conditions and approval ratings, write , associate professor of government and executive director of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, and graduate student in an .
鈥淪ince the news media called the 2020 presidential election, observers have offered a variety of explanations for Joe Biden鈥檚 victory over Donald Trump,鈥 . "These include Trump鈥檚 erratic behavior; Biden having 鈥渢he most sophisticated digital apparatus in American political history鈥; Biden鈥檚 鈥渂ump鈥 in appeal, above other Democrats; and 10 moments in which Trump lost the election. While each of these explanations 鈥 and others you may encounter 鈥 could have some merit, campaign particulars were probably not that important. If we look at data from more than 100 days before the election, the result has been almost exactly as we鈥檇 expect. The real surprise 鈥 and concern 鈥 of 2020 is how stable Trump鈥檚 approval ratings have remained.
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